Kamala Harris Leading in Three Must-Win Rust Belt States: Poll

Vice President Kamala Harris is leading in three must-win swing states in the Rust Belt, according to new polling.
A poll conducted by the Bullfinch Group between October 11 and 17 found that Harris is leading her opponent, former President Donald Trump, in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Harris’ biggest lead is in Michigan, where she is ahead by 8 points in a head-to-head matchup, on 53 percent to Trump’s 45 percent. She is also leading by 8 points when third-party candidates are included, 51 percent to 43 percent.
However, the vice president’s lead is much smaller in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and within the margin of error. In Wisconsin, she leads by 3 points in a head-to-head matchup and by 2 points when third-party candidates were included.
Meanwhile, the two candidates were tied in Pennsylvania in a head-to-head race, while Harris was ahead by 1 point with third-party candidates included.
The poll had a margin of error of ± 4 points in each state and surveyed 1,800 likely voters across the three states. Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
It comes as the Harris campaign grapples with declining numbers in the polls in an increasingly tight race. Biden flipped the three states blue in 2020 after Trump won them in 2016.
This year, Trump had been leading in all three states against Biden. But his lead was overtaken by Harris when she became the Democratic presidential nominee.
While FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker still shows that Harris is leading by very slim margins in the three states, her vote share there has declined in the last three weeks.
In Pennsylvania, Harris currently leads by just 0.1 points, down from 1.3 points on September 28. Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, she is ahead by 0.1 points, down from 2.2 points. In Michigan, she is in the lead by 0.6 points, down from 2.4 points on September 28.
Pollster Nate Silver’s tracker shows she is leading by between 0.4 points and 0.6 points in the Rust Belt states, having taken a hit of around 2 points since September 28.
National polls have shown Harris’ lead in the polls declining. A Fox News poll conducted from October 11 to 14, surveying 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters, found that Trump is leading Harris by 2 points, with Trump at 50 percent and Harris at 48 percent. This represents a 4-point swing from September when Harris had a 2-point advantage.
Similarly, an ActiVote poll from early October showed Trump holding a 1.2-point national lead, a reversal from September when Harris had been ahead by 5.4 points. Trump has also made gains in key swing states. A Fabrizio/McLaughlin poll from October 9 indicated Trump is leading in all seven battleground states, while RealClearPolitics’ tracker now predicts Trump winning every battleground state after Wisconsin flipped Republican in a poll earlier in the week.
These developments mean Trump is now projected to win the Electoral College with 312 votes to Harris’ 226, according to the RealClearPolitics forecast. However, FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s models still predict Harris will win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada—key states that would push her past the 270 Electoral College votes required.
Harris needs 44 electoral votes from toss-up states to secure victory, while Trump requires 51.
In his latest update, Silver described the race as “literally 50/50,” with key swing states showing a virtual tie. According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris leads Trump by 2.1 points nationally, while Silver’s tracker has her up by 2. 3 points. Silver’s current forecast gives Trump a 50.2 percent chance of winning, compared to Harris’ 49.5 percent.